The Ethanol industry never stands still. Every year brings new challenges, regulatory shifts, and opportunities that shape how producers, policymakers, and businesses move forward. At the 30th edition of the National Ethanol Conference (NEC), those dynamics were on full display.
Discussions ranged from ethanol’s continued growth and evolving trade policies to the ongoing regulatory hurdles that leave markets in limbo. E15 has been tangled in legal battles and legislative approval, while Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is still struggling to find its footing to scale. Meanwhile, the Inflation Reduction Act and related incentives continue to be a driving force — led in part by lawmakers from states where ethanol is woven into the economy.
Moreover, consumers still don’t fully understand E15, why it is only available in certain months, and the way it’s framed could be part of the problem. Terminology matters, and perception gaps could be holding back wider adoption of a fuel that would lower emissions.
Here are the standout insights from this year’s event, based on the P6 team’s perspective — and what they mean for the industry moving forward.
Takeaway 1: Trade policies could unlock more ethanol growth
The growth in ethanol has been phenomenal, which has a long history going back to Jimmy Carter’s presidency to deal with potential fuel shortages. Volumes continue to increase year over year. If trade imbalances are eliminated, mostly due matching tariffs being put in place by President Trump, overseas shipments could be a new source of growth for Ethanol as producers of the United States will have a level playing field.
Takeaway 2: Regulatory uncertainty is slowing market progress
Regulatory uncertainty dominates the conversation, and markets don’t respond well to unpredictability. Greg Cooper, President and CEO of Renewable Fuels Association, discussed the challenges around getting E15 (15% Ethanol) approved. The Trump administration originally pushed E15 through, but lawsuits from the petroleum industry convinced a D.C. judge to later block it. Unfair labelling, tariffs from Brazil, lack of final EPA approvals, and the elimination of the continuing resolution, have slowed down the use of E15, which would be budget neutral and reduce overall emissions. The same barriers also apply to 45Z guidance, 40A fuel blending credits, and the outcome of the Inflation Reduction Act.
Takeaway 3: Sustainable Aviation Fuel deserves more attention
There surprisingly was not a lot of discussion on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Given the ambiguity in the regulatory environment for the primary fuels (ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel), it is not that surprising to know that the industry does not yet see a path to produce SAF at scale. Despite current uncertainties, the opportunity for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is significant. Renewable fuels have the potential to enhance domestic energy security, create jobs in rural communities, and reduce emissions.
Takeaway 4: Ethanol is essential for energy independence
Republican members of Congress such as Congressman Randy Feentstra of Iowa have been the key drivers of the Inflation Reduction Act, 45z, 45q, and key areas of the extension of the Inflation Reduction Act. This should not have been surprising as farmers and ethanol producers are all in Republican states. The key message is that ethanol is a key component of energy independence and should be a bi-partison agenda item.
Takeaway 5: Consumers need better education on E15
Based on a talk by Phillip Morris from LSG, a focus group made it clear that consumers need more education on E15 and they are confused as to why gas stations were not able to sell this blend during certain months of the year. They associate the summer month ban as being associated with something negative. Consumers are unaware that E15 can reduce the price of gas by 60-80c per gallon and have significant impacts on reducing emissions. Terminology makes a difference, consumers associate climate change with politics and the word bio (e.g. biofuels) with something being artificial as opposed to being environmentally friendly. The terms environment, air quality, and renewable energy resonate better.
Looking ahead, what’s next for ethanol?
The conversations at the National Ethanol Conference 2025 made one thing clear — this industry is at a turning point. Ethanol is growing, but lingering policy gaps and shifting trade dynamics could shape its trajectory for years to come. The uncertainty around E15 and Sustainable Aviation Fuel isn’t just a regulatory headache; it’s a roadblock to broader adoption and emissions reductions.
There’s also a clear disconnect between what consumers know about ethanol and what’s actually true. If E15 can lower gas prices by 60 to 80 cents per gallon and cut emissions, why isn’t that common knowledge? The language around ethanol fuels perception, and perception influences demand.
Ethanol should not just be viewed as a transition fuel — it has a long-term role in decarbonizing multiple industries. Field-level data is key to building a Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) ecosystem across the energy supply chain, ensuring greater transparency and accountability from production to the consumer’s tailpipe.
Ethanol producers have a major opportunity to monetize CO₂, particularly as EU regulations drive demand for low-carbon solutions. 2025 will be a pivotal year — companies need to act now to align with the 2030 climate goals and evolving market demands. The question now is how to turn that potential into reality.
If you want to continue your journey to the Ethanol landscape and see how Life Cycle Assessment can transform your approach to sustainability, the Life Cycle Assessment for Ethanol: Everything you need to know about LCA in the Ethanol industry blog post is for you.
